Access Report Projects Inflation Rate to Slow 15.97% Year-on-Year in August 2017

September 12, 2017/Access Bank Plc

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The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is scheduled to release the inflation figure for August 2017 on September 15, 2017 based on the Data Release Calendar available on the Bureau’s website.

The Economic Intelligence Group forecasts inflation rate (year-on-year) to trend downwards to 15.97% in August 2017 from 16.05% posted in July 2017. This would be the seventh consecutive month that the pace of annual inflation will decelerate after reaching a peak of 18.72% in January. Our methodology adopts an autoregressive analysis of past prices while it recognizes all the assumptions used by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its computation of monthly composite consumer price index (CCPI).

·      The drop in annual inflation reflects a slight acceleration in food prices, offset by a slowdown in core inflation.

·       According to an independent survey, the price of major staples like Rice continued to trend upwards in August while others like Yam, Potatoes, and Garri remained stable.

·     Core inflation, which excludes farm products and energy prices, is expected to continue trending downwards in the month of August owing to ongoing stability in the exchange rate. The value of the Naira remained stable at both the CBN official and Parallel market segments, closing at N305.85/$ and N365/$ respectively at the end of August compared to N305.65/$ and N365/$ in that order at the end of July.

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