Nigeria’s Inflation Records Ninth Consecutive Deceleration in 2017, Eases 15.91% in October

November 15, 2017/Cordros Research

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s headline consumer price index has recorded its ninth consecutive deceleration this year. Headline inflation was 15.91% in October, 7 bps down from 15.98% in September, 7 bps higher than Bloomberg’s compiled mean estimate of 15.84%, and 13 bps higher than our forecast of 15.78%. On month-on-month basis, the headline index increased by 0.76% (vs. 0.78% the previous month).

Food inflation rose by 20.31%, just a soft touch below the 20.32% recorded in September, driven by notable increases in the prices of bread and cereals, meats, oils and fats, coffee, tea and cocoa, milk, cheese and eggs, vegetables, and fish. On m/m basis, food inflation increased at a slower pace of 0.85%, compared to the 0.87% recorded in the previous month.

Core inflation increased at a faster pace in October, rising by 12.14%, versus 12.12% in September, with the highest increases reported in the prices of maintenance and repair of personal transport equipment and other services related to personal transport equipment, air transport, vehicle spare parts, carpets and other floor coverings, furniture and furnishings and repair of furniture, solid and liquid fuels, shoes and other foot ware and garments, clothing materials, other articles of clothing, and clothing accessories. On a m/m basis, however, the core index increased at a slower rate of 0.76%, 4 bps below the 0.80% reported the previous month.