April 18, 2018/IMF
World growth strengthened in 2017 to 3.8 percent, with a notable rebound in global trade. It was driven by an investment recovery in advanced economies, continued strong growth in emerging Asia, a notable upswing in emerging Europe, and signs of recovery in several commodity exporters.
Global growth is expected to tick up to 3.9 percent this year and next, supported by strong momentum, favorable market sentiment, accommodative financial conditions, and the domestic and international repercussions of expansionary fiscal policy in the United States.
The partial recovery in commodity prices should allow conditions in commodity exporters to gradually improve. Over the medium term, global growth is projected to decline to about 3.7 percent.
Once the cyclical upswing and US fiscal stimulus have run their course, prospects for advanced economies remain subdued, given their slow potential growth.
In emerging market and developing economies, in contrast, growth will remain close to its 2018–19 level as the gradual recovery in commodity exporters and a projected increase in India’s growth provide some offset to China’s gradual slowdown and emerging Europe’s return to its lower-trend growth rate.
Nevertheless, 40 emerging market and developing economies are projected to grow more slowly in per capita terms than advanced economies, failing to narrow income gaps vis-à-vis the group of more prosperous countries.
Despite strong aggregate figures in the baseline forecast and buoyant market sentiment, the current momentum is not assured. Upside and downside risks are broadly balanced over the next several quarters, but risks farther down the road are skewed to the downside.
With still-easy financial conditions and persistently low inflation that has required protracted monetary policy accommodation, a potential further buildup of financial vulnerabilities could give way to rapid tightening of global financial conditions, denting confidence and growth.
The support to growth that comes from procyclical policies, including in the United States, will eventually need to be reversed. Other risks include a shift toward inward-looking policies that harm international trade and a worsening of geopolitical tensions and strife.