IMF Says Nigeria’s Growth Outlook in 2018 Remains Challenging

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July 13, 2018

By Peter OBIORA Investadvocate

Lagos (INVESTADVOCATE)Global financial Institution, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Friday said  under current policies in Nigeria, outlook remains challenging, coming on the heels of the conclusion of its mission to the country.

IMF Says Nigeria is weighed down by lower than expected oil production and relatively weak agriculture growth.

According to the Fund, Nigeria’s fiscal deficit would narrow slightly, with higher oil revenues offsetting increased spending, including those planned in a supplementary budget.

The global lender says inflation would pick up in the second half of 2018 as base effects dissipate and higher spending and supply constraints in agriculture put pressure on prices and increased oil exports would keep the current account in surplus, helping stabilize gross international reserves even if the current pace of foreign portfolio outflows continues.

“Higher oil prices and short-term portfolio inflows have provided relief from external and fiscal pressures but the recovery remains challenging. International reserves remained stable at about $47 billion, supported by some convergence in existing foreign exchange windows, and despite some reversal of foreign inflows since April, Amine Mati, seniour resident representative and mission chief for Nigeria said.

Mati noted Nigeria’s inflation declined to its lowest level in more than two years and real GDP expanded by 2 percent in the first quarter of 2018 compared to the first quarter of last year. “However, activity in the non-oil non-agricultural sector remains weak as lower purchasing power weighs on consumer demand and as credit risk continues to limit bank lending,” he added.

According to Mati, corporate tax collection efforts improved but revenue shortfalls and the late adoption of the 2018 budget impede its implementation.

He affirmed that revenue from higher oil prices is limited by net losses from retail fuel sales while non-oil revenue remains below expectations, with yields from tax administration measures—including the Voluntary Asset Income Declaration Scheme (VAID) and increased tax audits—yet to fully materialize.

“Current spending remains in line with expectations. Carryover from 2017 to 2018 helped increase capital spending in the first four months of 2018, despite delayed approval of the 2018 budget. Lower yields have kept interest payments within the budgeted envelope, but the Federal Government’s interest-to-revenue ratio is expected to absorb more than half of revenues this year,” the IMF mission chief for Nigeria said.

He further affirmed that reforms to improve the Nigeria’s business environment are progressing, including through identification of priority investment projects and the adoption of the Company and Allied Matters Act (CAMA)—a legislative landmark for private sector development. “The implementation of the Power Sector Recovery Plan is advancing through a mini-grid policy, and regulations on eligible customers and meter asset providers,” he added.

The IMF in its mission statement on Nigeria advised that a coherent set of policies to reduce vulnerabilities and increase growth remains urgent. This includes specific and sustainable measures to increase the currently low tax revenue—including through avoiding new tax exemptions — and ensuring budget targets are adhered to even in an election year.

“This process should be supported by keeping monetary policy tight through appropriate monetary policy tools that will help contain inflationary pressures and support a move towards a uniform market-determined exchange rate. Moving ahead with structural reforms is needed to invigorate inclusive growth, particularly in the power sector where faster progress would be needed to ensure financing shortfalls in the sector are met in a sustainable manner,” the IMF said.

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