Nigeria’s GDP expands by 1.50% y/y in Q2-18

27/8/2018/Cordros report

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) just released Nigeria’s Q2-18 GDP figure, showing that the domestic economy expanded for the fifth consecutive quarter, with real GDP growing by 1.50% y/y (vs. 1.95% y/y in the previous quarter and 0.72% y/y in Q2-2017). The growth estimate came in 46 bps and 120 bps lower than Bloomberg’s compiled average estimate of 1.96% and Cordros’ forecast of 2.70%, respectively.

A quick look at the breakdown of the GDP figure shows that the oil sector contracted by 3.95% (compared to growth of 14.77% in Q1-18 and 3.53% in Q2-17). The NBS estimated crude oil production during the three months period to be 1.84mb/d, 0.16mb/d and 0.03mb/d lower than the 2.0mb/d and 1.87mb/d reported in Q1-18 and Q2-17. The sector contributed 8.55% of total GDP (vs. 9.61% and 9.04% in Q1-18 and the corresponding quarter of 2017 respectively) during the review period.

Output in the non-oil sector expanded, growing by 2.05% y/y in Q2-18, 129 bps higher than the rate recorded in Q1-18 and 59 bps higher when compared to the growth rate achieved a year ago. The non-oil sector contributed 91.45% to total GDP (vs. 90.39% and 90.96% in the three months to March 2018 and Q2-17 respectively).

A breakdown of three of the biggest components of the GDP shows that Services expanded by 2.12% y/y (vs. -0.47% y/y in Q1-18 and -0.85% y/y in Q2-17). Also, Agriculture grew by 1.19% y/y, 181 bps and 182 bps lower than growth rates recorded in Q1-18 and Q2-17 respectively. Manufacturing grew by 0.68% y/y – 271 bps lower and 4 bps higher than growth rates recorded in Q1-18 and Q2-17 respectively.

In terms of contribution, services, industries, and agriculture, respectively, accounted for 54.0%, 23.2%, and 22.9% of overall output growth.

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