Rapid Response: Nigeria’s GDP expands by 1.87% y/y in Q1-20

May 25, 2020/Cordros Report

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) just released Nigeria’s Q1-20 GDP figure, showing that the economy grew slower, with real GDP printing 1.87% y/y (vs. 2.55% y/y in the previous quarter and 2.10% y/y in Q1-2019). The growth outturn outperformed Cordros’ estimate of 0.74% y/y by 113bps, despite the COVID-19 induced economic downturn, especially at the twilight of March.

A quick look at the breakdown of the GDP figure showed that the oil sector rebounded, growing by 5.06% y/y (compared to -1.50% in Q1-19). The NBS estimated crude oil production during the three months to be 2.07mb/d, an 11.0% y/y higher relative to Q1-19. The sector contributed 9.50% of total GDP (vs. 9.22% Q1-19) during the review period.

Conversely, output in the non-oil sector printed a disappointing 1.55% y/y growth in Q1-20, a 95bps lower than the rate recorded in the first quarter of 2019, as well as 71bps lower than the growth rate achieved a quarter ago. The non-oil sector contributed 90.5% to total GDP, (vs. 90.78% and 92.63% in Q1-19 and Q4-19, respectively).

Analysing the breakdown of three of the biggest components of the GDP: Services grew by 1.57% y/y (vs. 2.22% y/y in Q4-19); Agriculture grew by 2.20% y/y, (vs. 2.36% y/y in Q4-19); Industries grew by 2.26% (vs. 0.231% y/y in Q4-19).

In terms of contribution, services, industries, and agriculture, respectively, accounted for 54.39%, 23.65%, and 21.96% of overall output growth.

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