Coronation Merchant Bank Shares Perspective on Post-Election Implications and the BAT Administration

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March 16, 2023/Coronation Research

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) announced the result of the 2023 presidential elections on Wednesday, 1 March ’23. Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All-Progressives Congress (APC) won the election, defeating Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Peter Gregory Obi of the Labour Party’s (LP), and Rabi’u Musa Kwakwanso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). 

The major opposition parties have called for a cancellation of the presidential election, citing reports of disruptions and irregularities during the election process. An election petition tribunal is ongoing. 

The opposition parties recorded several surprise victories among House of Representatives and Senatorial candidates. However, the APC retained majority in both chambers. 

Voters’ Attitude – according to INEC, 93.46 million Nigerians registered to vote in the 2023 Presidential election. However, the voter turnout recorded was 27.1%. This is abysmal and compares with 35% and 42.8% recorded in the 2019 and 2015 general elections, respectively. 

Sentiments – anecdotal evidence show that the business community is fairly optimistic, as potential reforms and policies listed in the President-Elect’s manifesto are encouraging. If implemented accordingly, current economic headwinds could dissipate and by extension, boost business confidence. 

Market rates – although the FGN Eurobond market witnessed a small rally in the run-up to the announcement, at COB on 01 March ‘23 (announcement day), the average yield on FGN Eurobonds rose by 24bps to 12.1%. Meanwhile, the average FGN bond and OMO yields declined by 6bps and 74bps, respectively, to close at 13.2% and 3%. As for NTBs, the average yield remained unchanged at 4%.

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